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Liz Truss: The Great Resignation and its Impact on UK Policy & Economy

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Following the resignation of Boris Johnson, Liz Truss distinguished her leadership campaign by her commitment to deliver “growth, growth, growth”. In reflection, Truss’s brief stint in office was disastrous for the British economy. 

Truss’ ‘growth plan’ included cancelling a planned increase to corporation tax, reversing a rise in National Insurance Contributions, cutting the basic rate of income tax and abolishing the higher rate completely. Truss’ policies culminated in an unfunded £45 billion tax cut in her Chancellor of the Exchequer, Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget.

Truss’ rationale seemed to invoke a renaissance of neo-liberal economic policies to fight inflation and stimulate economic growth. Previously supported by Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher, neo-liberal economics purports minimal state intervention, deregulation and confidence in free markets. These austerity-driven financial policies favour the wealthy, and were unsurprisingly met with enormous public backlash in the UK against the current macroeconomic backdrop. In the midst of a cost of living crisis, stagnant growth and an energy crisis, Truss’ plans for the economy were seen as unorthodox by some and frankly naïve and reckless by many.  Upon the news of Kwarteng’s mini-budget, the pound dropped to the lowest level ever against the dollar, UK government bonds saw a heavy sell-off and the FTSE ended the day deep in the red. The Bank of England’s decision to intervene and purchase £65 billion of long-dated gilt was the calamitous culmination to a string of bad days for the British economy.

The backlash culminated in Truss sacking Kwarteng, only to step down herself 6 days later. Truss’ 44 day stint in office makes her the shortest-serving British prime minister in modern history. 

Her resignation has shaken the economy of Britain as it faces a worsened cost of living crisis as well as a looming recession. The election of the more economically moderate Rishi Sunak to No.10 has had somewhat of a calming effect on the economy with the pound stabilising. 

Sunak has outlined that difficult decisions lie ahead as he intends to cut spending. Jeremy Hunt, Chancellor of the Exchequer, warns that the new budget being prepared, is ‘going to be tough”.  

After weeks of financial turmoil, expectations for a recession have intensified and forecasts for its extent deepened.  While the appointment of Sunak has eased economic uncertainty and tensions in the bond market, the country still faces a profound economic challenge with a fourth-quarter GDP decline of 1.6%, predicted by Goldman Sachs’ economists. 

To curb inflation, it is expected that the Bank of England will increase monetary contractions by hiking interest rates 75 basis points in November and December. This will hopefully cool the economy enough to calm inflation and panic.

Truss’ brief stint as PM shows that neoliberal economic policies remain unpopular.  They are particularly unwelcome in economically challenging times and can even be term-ending for its proponents in power. With Sunak we can expect less turbulence but the outlook is still negative for the British economy as businesses and citizens alike brace themselves for tightening monetary policy.

Recession Talk: The OECD Forecasts for the European Economy 

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On Monday 26th September, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) released their forecasts for the global economy. The outlook is bleak. International output growth is projected to grow at a rate of 2.2% over 2023, down from initial projections of 2.8% growth for 2023. This contrasts negatively to a growth rate of 3% in 2022 and represents an even greater fall from 6% growth in 2021. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, the ongoing effects of China’s Zero Covid Policy, as well as an increase in interest rates by the ECB, Federal Reserve, and Bank of England, have been identified as the main causes of this sluggish economic activity. The OECD identifies the Russian invasion of Ukraine as a key contributor to these negative forecasts – with forecasts outlining a $2.8 trillion decrease in global GDP thanks to the invasion. It also notes that the economic impact of the War is greater than previous forecasts predicted.

As a result, ECB policy has transitioned away from negative interest rates. This tightening of monetary policy has led to a decrease in the money supply, alleviating pressure on prices. This has also been cited as a primary contributor for slower economic growth over the next calendar year. 

The OECD predicts that because the US Fed started contractionary monetary policy earlier, their high inflation levels will decline more swiftly than those of Europe and the UK.

The OECD also notes the impact of reduced energy supplies from Russia to the EU. Gas storage levels have recently been recorded at 90% of capacity in the EU. However, projections indicate that this initiative will not be sufficient on its own to assist households through the Winter. A serious reconsideration of energy usage in Europe is pivotal and new European policy must acknowledge the necessity of reducing gas consumption. The OECD projects that European growth could fall by a further 1.25% points relative to their initial forecasts for 2023 if supply is not better diversified and gas consumption reduced. This, together with increasing inflation, would plunge several European economies into recession in 2023 if European leaders do not properly confront the energy crisis.

Although slow and laborious growth is predicted for the Eurozone, a recession is unavoidable if gas consumption cannot be reduced or if problems arise with other energy suppliers to the European countries. The outlook for the UK looks even more bleak with the OECD projecting zero growth. Germany’s dependence on Russian energy supplies has seen the OECD project a contraction in its economy for 2023. The outlook looks bleak indeed.

The Future of Digital Assets in the EU 

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Many people have long seen the market for digital assets as the Wild West of investing, filled with lucrative volatility and a significant risk of fraud. However, the European Commission’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) is a regulatory framework that seeks to change this. MiCA is due to come into effect in 2024 with the dual objectives of harmonisation of existing EU regulations and the protection of investors.

One of the key impacts of this new framework will be to broaden the scope of existing regulation to include additional Virtual asset service providers (VASPs). Owing to the market’s rapid development, many service providers are unregulated, putting investors at risk of exploitation. Crypto-asset service providers (CASPs) is a term that exists in many other jurisdictions and has now been adopted by MiCA’s drafters to replace the Financial Action Task Force’s well-known definition for VASPs. The CASP definition is very similar to the original definition however it is much broader in scope so as to provide for as many crypto-related entities as possible. The most important thing to understand is that all VASPs will be considered CASPs but not all CASPs will be VASPs as they will fall outside the previous, narrower definition.

VASP definition:

  1. Exchange between virtual assets and fiat currencies;
  2. Exchange between one or more forms of virtual assets;
  3. Transfer of virtual assets;
  4. Safekeeping and/or administration of virtual assets or instruments enabling control over virtual assets; and
  5. Participation in and provision of financial services related to an issuer’s offer and/or sale of a virtual asset.

CASP definition: 

  1. The custody and administration of crypto-assets on behalf of third parties; 
  2. The operation of a trading platform for crypto-assets; 
  3. The exchange of crypto-assets for fiat currency that is legal tender; 
  4. The exchange of crypto-assets for other crypto-assets; 
  5. The execution of orders for crypto-assets on behalf of third parties; 
  6. Placing of crypto-assets; 
  7. The reception and transmission of orders for crypto-assets on behalf of third parties;
  8. Providing advice on crypto-assets;

MiCA will also regulate the digital assets which currently fall outside the scope of EU and Member State regulations, such as e-money tokens, asset-referenced tokens and utility tokens. Surprisingly, MiCA does not address non-fungible tokens (NFTs), although the European Commission has indicated that it will address them in the future.

When MiCA comes into effect it will be applicable across the EU, without requiring Member States to introduce implementation laws. This uniform approach will bring about greater clarity and certainty for CASPs who are currently faced with differing domestic regulations across Member States. For example, MiCA will streamline the licensing process for crypto-asset issuers and make it valid across all Member States. 

Notwithstanding the greater ease of doing business, the regime itself will impose stricter obligations on CASPs so as to protect investors from market abuse and ensure transparency. These obligations relate to the authorisation of issuers and the marketing of crypto-assets themselves, as well as the requirement to publish reports and whitepapers. However, issuers that operate on a smaller scale will be exempt, such as those that deal with less than 120 investors per Member State. 

While some CASPs may be sceptical of MiCA’s impact on their business models, the Commission anticipates that the increased protection will attract investors. For example, CASPs involved in the custody of digital assets (custodians) will be required to store their customers’ assets separately to their own data, using Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT). This will ensure the assets are more secure in the event of a malware attack. Furthermore, these custodians will also be liable for losses that result from hacking or break down in technology. These requirements will undoubtedly increase consumer confidence and thus stimulate investment. 

Finally, it is interesting to note that because the safeguards relate to EU consumers, these changes will also apply to any firms outside the EU who wish to do business in the EU. Therefore, MiCA will have far-reaching implications for both CASPs and investors in the digital assets market not just in the EU but around the world. As Dublin is one of the world’s investment fund and asset management hubs it will be interesting to see what opportunities and challenges arise as a result of MiCA.

Ethereum Upgrade “Merge” Represents a Shift Forward in the Future of Cryptocurrency and Blockchain

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Since the formulation of Bitcoin in 2009, the ground-breaking idea of using blockchain to generate what is now known as “cryptocurrency” has attained a level of popularity, even in the face of tremendous volatility, that detractors could never have imagined. Ethereum was first conceptualised in 2013 and brought to life in 2014 by programmer Vitalik Buterin. The cryptocurrency was founded not as a currency in itself, but as a platform with a goal to fully decentralise the internet. Since its formation, Ethereum has grown to earn its position as the second-largest cryptocurrency in the world with a current market cap of $163.28bn, despite a recent but steady fall in price of 66% from annual highs. 

Although Bitcoin and Ethereum are quite different with regards to their structure and capabilities, they have faced common criticisms by both observers and users alike. “Proof-of-work” is the decentralised mechanism used by both whereby members of a network solve arbitrary mathematical problems that use massive amounts of computing power for mining new tokens and validating transactions. The total consumption of energy needed to fuel this computing power has been condemned. According to estimates, Bitcoin alone consumes as much energy as Poland. In the face of climate change and energy shortages, there has been increased pressure on governments and corporations to disincentivise the growth of such cryptocurrencies based on the system of proof-of-work. The White House proposed restrictions on proof-of-work mining earlier this month as a way to reduce energy consumption. 

These problems prompted Ethereum developers to reconsider the “proof-of-work” system and led to the proposal of a “proof-of-stake” upgrade to underwrite Ethereum. This project eventually led to the “Merge” that took place last Thursday, 15th September which went off without a hitch. The proof-of stake mechanism is based on the work of “validators” rather than “miners”. These validators are compensated modestly in return for their validation of transactions and collateralize their own cryptocurrency which deters dishonest or lazy work. Over 100 developers worked on the upgrade for years to ensure minimal risks for bugs and the new mechanism is estimated to cut energy consumption by the cryptocurrency by roughly 99.95%.

The upgrade will significantly reduce the quantity of Ether (Ethereum’s token) coming into circulation which may allow it to serve as a deflationary currency in the coming months. Ethereum may well become more accessible for institutional investors as corporations can no longer use the wasteful use of energy as an excuse to ban its use in portfolios. Institutions such as Bank of America have recently indicated that the upgrade may ease their current restrictive policy on Ethereum. Cryptocurrency advocates say the transition marks a turning point in the future of digital assets while critics argue that a number of challenges remain. While the “Merge” will accelerate the process of introducing upgrades and make Ethereum more efficient, it will still face the inherited problems of congestion and very high transaction costs. The proof-of-stake upgrade represents more than just a change in operating system. Proof-of-stake has now been proven to be a suitable mechanism for operating blockchain technology and will have broad implications for the innovation of digital assets in the future. 

Truss’s first act as UK Prime Minister promises to save the public, but she threatens the value of the pound

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Lizz Truss enters no. 10 Downing Street during high-stakes wars; both within her party, and on the Eastern borders of Europe. However, her first battle as prime minister will be tackling the energy bill crisis. This daunting task is made ever more difficult by Truss’s commitment to a low tax economy.

The cost of a cap on energy bills depends largely on its form. A targeted plan to help the most vulnerable households, such as £650 for those on means-tested benefits, would be cheaper. However, it would be difficult to implement quickly and effectively and it would leave families just above the threshold in a precarious position. A blanket tax break would benefit richer households with disposable income, and would cost substantially more.

Furthermore, the cost of the energy cap will likely be increased by factors outside of Truss’s control. Putin has taken a stance against western sanctions by extending the closure of Nord Stream 1. This will increase the price of gas as well as the cost of Truss’s relief plan. As well as this, a relief package of this scale will increase public spending in a demand charged inflation spike, spurring a further rise in interest rates.

With a public debt to GDP ratio of 96%, investor confidence in the UK is low. Couple this with extensive high-interest rate borrowing, Truss will need to provide extensive assurances on payment plans in order to attract foreign investment. However, as of yet all she has done is ensure that taxes will be slashed.

If Truss decides to increase taxes, either approach will be politically difficult. A general tax would be a rejection of her low-tax promise, which could be seen as a return to the laissez-faire approach to policy integrity endured during the Johnson administration. However, a long-term repayment of tax breaks could cut vulnerable households adrift, which would be detrimental to the economy.

With a worryingly high cap on costs, and no real plan to raise funds for repayments, investor confidence is at a worryingly low level. On Monday, Shreyas Gopal of Deutsche Bank claimed the UK could be on a “balance of payments crisis”. Although unlikely in a G7 economy, the risk of a balance of payments crisis is no longer negligible. Therefore, in order to attract foreign investment and fund her relief package, Truss will have to depreciate the value of Sterling substantially, with Deutsche Bank claiming that a devaluation of 30% may be required to attract foreign investment into Britain.                                                                                                                                                                      

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